Pending Case Backlog: Trends and Projections
Data current as of · Source: USCIS Quarterly Statistics
The I-526/I-526E pending case backlog has grown from 5,072 cases at the end of FY2022 to 10,787 as of End Q3 FY2025. This page tracks the trajectory of pending cases, breaks down the composition between legacy I-526 and reformed I-526E petitions, and analyzes the implications for processing times and investor planning.
Key Takeaways
- 1The pending backlog reached 10,787 cases as of End Q3 FY2025, more than doubling from 5,072 at the end of FY2022.
- 2I-526E petitions account for 83% of the backlog (8,965 cases), while legacy I-526 cases have declined to 1,822 and are approaching resolution.
- 3The backlog is growing because new filings consistently outpace completions. FY2025 is on track to receive over 6,700 petitions while adjudicating fewer than 4,000.
- 4Processing times are unlikely to improve materially until USCIS adjudication capacity catches up with filing volume, which current trends suggest will not happen before FY2027.
Total Pending
10,787
End Q3 FY2025
I-526E Pending
8,965
83% of total backlog
I-526 Legacy
1,822
Declining toward resolution
Pending Backlog by Fiscal Year
| Period | Pending Cases | Receipts | Net Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (Q1 to Q3) | 10,787 | 5,079 | +1,475 |
| FY2024 | 9,312 | 6,424 | +2,590 |
| FY2023 | 6,722 | 4,213 | +1,650 |
| FY2022 | 5,072 | 3,108 | Baseline |
Source: USCIS Quarterly Statistics. Pending counts reflect end of period inventory. FY2025 data covers Q1 through Q3. Net change calculated from prior period closing balance.
Growth Trajectory
The pending backlog has more than doubled in three years, growing from 5,072 cases at the end of FY2022 to 10,787 as of End Q3 FY2025. This growth is structural: new petition filings have consistently exceeded USCIS adjudication output in every quarter since the Reform and Integrity Act took effect.
The composition of the backlog tells an important story. Legacy I-526 cases have declined from over 9,000 at the start of FY2024 to just 1,822, indicating that USCIS has prioritized clearing the pre-reform queue. However, I-526E filings have grown so rapidly that they now constitute 83% of all pending cases (8,965 of 10,787).
The FY2025 filing pace reinforces the growth outlook. With 5,079 petitions received through Q3, the program is on track to exceed the FY2024 full year total of 6,424 receipts. The approaching grandfathering deadline of September 30, 2026 is expected to accelerate filing volumes further, potentially pushing the backlog above 13,000 cases by the end of FY2026.
What This Means for Processing Times
The relationship between the pending backlog and processing times is direct. When new filings outpace adjudications, the queue lengthens and processing times increase for all petition categories. The current growth trajectory suggests that processing times are unlikely to improve materially until either filing volumes decrease or USCIS substantially expands adjudication capacity.
Rural category investors currently enjoy the fastest processing at 11 to 17 months, but even this category could see delays if the backlog continues to grow at the current rate. USCIS has demonstrated a willingness to prioritize rural and high unemployment area petitions, but capacity constraints may eventually affect all categories.
Unreserved category investors face the longest current wait at 36 to 52 months, and this category is most vulnerable to backlog growth. Each additional thousand petitions in the queue adds approximately 3 to 4 months of processing time for unreserved cases, based on observed adjudication rates.
The strategic takeaway for investors is clear: filing earlier produces a meaningful advantage. Each quarter of delay places an investor further back in a growing queue, compounding the wait time. This is especially important for investors approaching the September 30, 2026 grandfathering deadline, where early filing provides both grandfathering protection and a more favorable position in the adjudication queue.
Legacy I-526 Backlog Approaching Resolution
One positive development within the backlog data is the rapid decline of legacy I-526 pending cases. The pre-reform queue has shrunk from over 9,000 cases to 1,822, and at the current adjudication pace, this backlog will be substantially resolved by FY2026.
The clearance of legacy cases is significant because it frees USCIS adjudicator resources for the growing I-526E queue. Once the legacy backlog is fully resolved, the agency can redirect those resources to I-526E adjudication, which could slow or stabilize the growth of the overall pending inventory. However, the timing of this reallocation is uncertain, and it may not be sufficient to offset the projected filing surge ahead of the grandfathering deadline.
How this data was calculated
Pending case counts are sourced directly from USCIS quarterly statistics and represent the end of period inventory. I-526E and I-526 breakdowns are derived from published receipt and completion data. Projection estimates (Yellow tier) are based on observed filing and adjudication rates over the trailing four quarters and should be treated as directional indicators, not precise forecasts.
Full historical backlog data from FY2015 to present, quarterly trend charts, and downloadable datasets are available with Pro. View plans →
Cite this page
EB5 Status. "EB-5 Pending Case Backlog Trends and Projections." eb5status.com. Data as of End Q3 FY2025. Accessed April 3, 2026. https://www.eb5status.com/en/data/backlog-projections