Why are there visa bulletin retrogression and advances?
The visa bulletin reflects the relationship between supply (annual visa numbers allocated by Congress) and demand (approved petitions waiting for visas). When demand exceeds supply for a particular country, the State Department imposes a cutoff date. Only petitions with priority dates before that date can receive visas.
Advances occur when visa number supply exceeds current demand, allowing the cutoff date to move forward. This happens when backlogs clear faster than expected or when visa numbers are redistributed from undersubscribed categories.
Retrogression occurs when the State Department determines it has advanced the cutoff date too far, risking over-issuance of visas for the fiscal year. The cutoff date moves backward to slow the pace of visa issuance. Retrogression is more common near the end of the federal fiscal year (July through September) when the State Department must balance visa issuance against annual caps.
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