FY2026 to FY2027 Visa Allocation Transition: What October 2026 Brings

The Department of State's fiscal year ends September 30. The October bulletin is where the Visa Office resets annual allocations and recalibrates cutoffs against the new year's quota.

Outcome, updated November 7, 2026: This article was written in mid-2026 as a forecast and is kept as a record. What happened: India unreserved was Unavailable in the July, August and September 2026 bulletins. The October 2026 bulletin, the first of FY2027, set India unreserved final action to December 1, 2023, well past the May 2022 area we had expected. China unreserved final action did not move from Dec 1, 2016, but China's Dates for Filing jumped from March 1, 2017 to March 1, 2021. All set-asides stayed Current. The November 2026 bulletin made no EB-5 changes.

For EB-5 investors, the October 2026 bulletin was expected to be the most consequential bulletin of the year. It was the most likely month for India unreserved to recover from any July or August retrogression, the month the FY2027 quota became available for China unreserved, and the first test of whether set-aside categories would face cap-binding pressure.

This article walks through how October bulletins historically behave, what the FY2027 reset specifically means for EB-5, and how investors should plan around the transition. Gray trust tier on the projections.

Why October matters: the fiscal year arithmetic#

The annual EB-5 visa allocation under INA 203(b)(5) is approximately 10,000 visas per fiscal year, calculated as 7.1 percent of the total worldwide employment-based preference allocation. The 10,000 splits as: 68 percent unreserved (~6,800), 20 percent rural (~2,000), 10 percent HUA (~1,000), 2 percent infrastructure (~200).

Each fiscal year runs October 1 through September 30. Visa numbers issued during the fiscal year count against that year's quota. Unreserved numbers not issued by September 30 do not stay in EB-5; unused employment-based numbers are added to the next year's family-sponsored limit. The set-asides are different: under the RIA, unused rural, HUA and infrastructure numbers stay available in their set-aside for the next fiscal year before moving to the unreserved category.

In late summer, the Visa Office knows roughly how much of the fiscal year's quota has been consumed. If demand is approaching the cap, the office holds cutoffs flat (June 2026 was a hold), retrogresses (the Section H warning for July), or declares unavailability. Once October 1 arrives, the new fiscal year's full quota is available again, which typically allows the Visa Office to move dates forward.

How October bulletins have historically behaved for EB-5#

Looking back through recent October bulletins (Blue tier, sourced from visa-bulletin-history.ts):

The pattern: October bulletins have generally produced forward movement in retrogressed countries, but the size of the movement depends on the prior fiscal year's residual demand and the upcoming year's projected demand. Significant advances are typical when the Visa Office wants to clear documented demand quickly to free capacity for new filings; modest advances or holds are typical when the office expects sustained high demand.

For India in particular, every October bulletin from 2023 through 2026 produced a large advance. China is less predictable: it advanced sharply in October 2024 and held in October 2025 and October 2026.

What October 2026 specifically might bring#

Scenario forecasting for the October 2026 bulletin requires assumptions about what happens between now and then. Two anchor scenarios.

Anchor scenario A: India unreserved retrogresses in July 2026 (the Section H warning case). Under this scenario, India unreserved Final Action Date moves backward in July, holds or retrogresses further in August, and either holds or retrogresses again in September. The October 2026 bulletin then recovers a portion of the retrogression, plausibly advancing back to the May 2022 area or even modestly past it. Probability of this scenario: 50 to 70 percent.

Anchor scenario B: India unreserved holds flat in July 2026. Under this scenario, the Section H warning was a feint and the cutoff stays at May 1, 2022 through Q4 FY2026. The October 2026 bulletin advances India by a small amount (1 to 3 months) as the FY2027 quota becomes available. Probability: 15 to 25 percent.

Update (the July 2026 bulletin is now published): scenario A has played out. India unreserved Final Action is Unavailable for the remainder of FY2026, having reached its per-country limit, with availability expected to return in the October 2026 (FY2027) bulletin. The scenario probabilities above reflect the pre-July forecast. Update, November 6, 2026: the October 2026 bulletin restored India unreserved Final Action at December 1, 2023, and the November 2026 bulletin held it there.

Across both scenarios, the October 2026 bulletin is the most plausible point for India unreserved to advance materially. Investors with India priority dates close to the current cutoff should plan their case milestones (consular interview readiness, I-485 documentation, family member preparation) around the October 2026 publication.

For China unreserved, our forecast was an advance of 30 to 90 days in October 2026. That did not happen: the final action date held at Dec 1, 2016 (after a 70-day advance in July 2026), while the Dates for Filing chart jumped four years to March 1, 2021. China-born investors with priority dates after Dec 1, 2016 are still waiting on final action.

What October 2026 specifically might NOT bring#

Three things investors should not expect:

• Total clearing of the China or India backlog. Even with a large October advance, both countries remain meaningfully behind the worldwide cutoff and behind their respective filing dates. October moves the cutoff; it does not eliminate the per-country cap that creates the backlog in the first place.
• A first set-aside retrogression. Rural, HUA, and Infrastructure were all Current in June 2026, and they stayed Current in the October and November 2026 bulletins.
• A change to the grandfathering deadline. The September 30, 2026 date is statutory and does not depend on visa bulletin movement. The October 2026 bulletin was published in early September 2026, before that date. The date has since passed.

Implications for filing strategy#

Update, November 7, 2026: The September 30, 2026 grandfathering date has passed. Petitions filed on or before that date are protected under INA 203(b)(5)(S) if the Regional Center Program lapses. Petitions filed after it do not have that protection. Regional center authorization runs through September 30, 2027.

Three implications, updated for the October and November 2026 bulletins:

• India priority dates with consular or I-485 plans: India-born investors with priority dates before December 1, 2023 are now current for final action in the unreserved category. Those cases should have documents, biometrics and interview preparation ready now, because FY2026 showed that India can become Unavailable again late in a fiscal year.
• China priority dates after Dec 1, 2016: final action did not move in October or November 2026. The Dates for Filing jump to March 1, 2021 matters more for now: in months when USCIS accepts that chart (it did for November 2026), China-born investors in the United States with earlier priority dates can file I-485.
• New I-526E filings: do not delay for bulletin reasons. The bulletin does not change filing eligibility; it changes visa availability for already-filed cases. The next fixed date for new filers is January 1, 2027, when the investment amounts are adjusted for inflation.

FAQ: FY2027 visa allocation transition#

Q: What is the actual size of the FY2027 EB-5 allocation?

A: Approximately 10,000 visas, calculated as 7.1 percent of the total worldwide employment-based preference allocation. The split is 68 percent unreserved (~6,800), 20 percent rural (~2,000), 10 percent HUA (~1,000), 2 percent infrastructure (~200). The exact total depends on the worldwide preference allocation, which can vary slightly year to year.

Q: Do unused FY2026 visas carry over to FY2027?

A: Partly. Under the RIA, set-aside numbers (rural, HUA, infrastructure) left unused in a fiscal year remain available in the same set-aside category for the next fiscal year, and if still unused, move to the unreserved category. Unused unreserved numbers do not carry over inside EB-5.

Q: Will the FY2027 allocation be different because of the program reauthorization in September 2027?

A: The current authorization expires September 30, 2027. FY2027 (October 1, 2026 to September 30, 2027) operates under the existing authorization for the entire year. Any reauthorization changes take effect for FY2028 forward. Petitions filed on or before September 30, 2026 are grandfathered against a program lapse; that filing window has closed.

Q: What is the earliest the October 2026 bulletin could publish?

A: The October 2026 bulletin has been published. It is dated September 4, 2026 and took effect October 1, 2026.

Q: Should I delay filing my I-526E to take advantage of the October bulletin?

A: Update, November 6, 2026: This question is moot. The October 2026 bulletin has published and the September 30, 2026 grandfathering deadline has passed. Grandfathering protection depended on the I-526E filing date relative to that deadline, so a petition filed now carries no statutory grandfathering protection.

Q: Could the Visa Office retrogress an already-current category in October?

A: Yes, in theory. If a country uses up its share of a set-aside category, the bulletin could retrogress that category for that country. It did not happen in October or November 2026: every set-aside stayed Current for every country. Watch the quarterly USCIS receipt statistics for the earliest signal.

Methodology#

Annual visa allocation math (10,000 total, 68/20/10/2 split) comes from INA 203(b)(5) as amended by the Reform and Integrity Act of 2022. Blue tier on the statute.

Historical October bulletin behavior comes from src/lib/data/visa-bulletin-history.ts covering FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026 transitions. Blue tier on the data, gray tier on the pattern description.

Forward scenarios for October 2026 are editorial projections based on the Section H warning in the June 2026 bulletin, the per-country cap math, and historical Visa Office behavior in similar circumstances. Orange tier. Actual outcomes depend on data the Visa Office has access to that is not publicly available.

This article is not legal advice. Filing strategy decisions require immigration counsel review.

What to read next#

• July 2026 Visa Bulletin Predictions: the bulletin that sets up the FY2027 transition.
• Visa Bulletin page: live cutoff data sourced from visa_bulletin_normalized.

Plan your case around the October bulletin. The Priority Date Tracker projects when your priority date is likely to become current based on movement patterns.