TEA Threshold Projection Methodology

The EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act (RIA), signed into law on March 15, 2022, established an automatic inflation adjustment mechanism for EB-5 investment amounts. Under Section 102 of the RIA, USCIS is required to adjust the minimum investment thresholds every five years based on the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

The baseline date for the adjustment calculation is January 1, 2022. The first adjustment is scheduled for January 1, 2027, with subsequent adjustments occurring every five years thereafter (January 1, 2032, January 1, 2037, and so on).

The current investment minimums, established by the RIA, are:

These amounts will remain in effect until the first CPI-U adjustment takes effect on January 1, 2027. After that date, the new thresholds will apply to all petitions filed on or after the adjustment date, rounded to the nearest $10,000 as specified in the statute.

We use the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers as the sole data input for our projection model. Specifically, we reference the CPI-U series that is not seasonally adjusted, all items (BLS series ID: CUUR0000SA0). This is the broadest measure of consumer price changes and the standard reference for statutory inflation adjustments.

BLS publishes CPI-U data monthly, typically in the second or third week following the reference month. We incorporate each new monthly release into our projection model within five business days of publication.

For the January 2027 adjustment, the denominator is the CPI-U value for January 2022 (as published by BLS). The numerator will be the CPI-U value for the reference month closest to the adjustment date. Until the actual adjustment date CPI figure is available, we project the numerator using the most recent 12 months of CPI-U trend data.

After applying the formula, the result is rounded to the nearest $10,000 per the statutory rounding rule. Both the TEA and standard thresholds are calculated independently using the same CPI-U ratio.

Based on CPI-U data published through early 2026, cumulative inflation since January 2022 has been approximately 12% to 14%. Applying the adjustment formula to the current thresholds produces the following projected ranges for the January 1, 2027 adjustment:

All projections carry inherent uncertainty because future CPI-U values are not yet known. We quantify this uncertainty by presenting confidence intervals alongside our point estimates. The width of the interval reflects the range of plausible outcomes based on historical CPI-U volatility.

Our approach to uncertainty estimation uses the following principles:

• •Time decay. The further out the projection date, the wider the confidence interval. For the January 2027 adjustment, the interval narrows with each new monthly CPI release.
• •Historical volatility. We calibrate our intervals using the trailing 36 months of CPI-U month over month changes. This captures the recent inflationary environment rather than relying on long run averages that may not reflect current conditions.
• •Rounding effect. The statutory $10,000 rounding rule means small differences in the projected CPI-U ratio can shift the final threshold by a full $10,000. We account for this step function in our interval estimates.
• •No scenario modeling. We do not model specific economic scenarios (recession, deflation, supply shocks). Our intervals represent the statistical range of outcomes consistent with recent CPI-U behavior, not a judgment about future economic conditions.

As of early 2026, with roughly 10 months of CPI-U data remaining before the adjustment date, the 90% confidence interval spans approximately $30,000 for the TEA threshold and $40,000 for the standard threshold. These ranges will narrow significantly as each new monthly CPI figure is published.

The projected investment amount increase has direct implications for investors considering EB-5 filings. Under current law, the investment amount that applies to a petition is the amount in effect on the date the petition is filed. Investors who file before the January 1, 2027 adjustment takes effect will lock in the current thresholds.

However, the practical filing deadline is earlier than January 1, 2027. The EB-5 Regional Center program authorization expires on September 30, 2027, and the program must be authorized at the time of filing. Additionally, the grandfathering provisions that protect investors from future legislative changes require that a petition be filed while the program is active.

For investors who file after January 1, 2027, the new CPI-U adjusted amounts will apply. Based on current projections, this could mean an additional $100,000 for TEA projects and approximately $100,000 to $160,000 for standard projects. The exact increase will be determined by the final CPI-U data and the statutory rounding calculation.

This projection model is versioned as calculations_v1.0. All projections published on EB5Status reference this version identifier so that readers can determine which methodology was used to produce a given estimate.

Changes to the projection model are documented in a version changelog. If we modify the model (for example, changing the volatility lookback window or incorporating a new data source), the version number will be incremented and all affected projections will be recalculated and republished under the new version.

Our broader methodology versioning convention follows the format calculations_v{major}.{minor}. See the Methodology Overview for details on our versioning practices.

Investment Threshold Calculator | Interactive tool for projecting future EB-5 investment amounts based on current CPI-U data.

Grandfathering Deadline Guide | Complete analysis of the September 30, 2026 filing deadline and grandfathering protections.

Reform and Integrity Act (Section 102) | Detailed analysis of the RIA provisions governing investment amounts and TEA designations.

Methodology Overview | Our complete data methodology, including trust tiers, confidence labels, and versioning practices.