Visa Bulletin Retrogression History

The United States allocates approximately 10,000 immigrant visas per year to the EB-5 category. Federal law also imposes a per-country limit of 7% of the total annual allocation, meaning no single country may receive more than roughly 700 EB-5 visas in a given year (though unused visas from undersubscribed countries can be redistributed).

Retrogression occurs when the number of qualified applicants from a particular country exceeds the number of available visas. When this imbalance arises, the Department of State establishes a "final action date," which is the cutoff priority date. Only applicants whose petition was filed before that date are eligible to receive a visa in the current month. Everyone else must wait.

For affected investors, retrogression means a longer overall timeline from petition filing to permanent residency. Even after USCIS approves an I-526E petition, the investor cannot proceed to the visa interview (consular processing) or file for adjustment of status (I-485) until their priority date becomes current. In practice, this can add years to the process, particularly for investors born in China, where the backlog extends more than a decade.

Retrogression also affects derivative family members (spouses and children under 21). Children approaching the age of 21 face "aging out" risk if the wait extends beyond their eligibility window. The Child Status Protection Act provides some relief, but does not eliminate the concern entirely.

The EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022 created three reserved visa categories that operate outside the traditional unreserved pool. These set-aside categories allocate a fixed percentage of the annual EB-5 visa supply to specific project types: 20% for rural projects, 10% for high unemployment area (HUA) projects, and 2% for infrastructure projects.

Since their creation, all three set-aside categories have remained "Current" for every country of chargeability. This means that investors who file through a qualifying rural, HUA, or infrastructure project face no visa backlog, regardless of their country of birth. For investors born in China, India, or Vietnam, this represents a significant advantage over the unreserved category, where backlogs can delay the process by years or even decades.

The practical effect has been a substantial shift in investor behavior. Rural projects in particular have seen increased demand, as they offer both faster processing times and immediate visa availability. Immigration attorneys increasingly recommend set-aside category projects to clients from retrogressed countries as the most effective strategy for avoiding backlog delays.

However, the set-aside categories are not permanently immune to retrogression. If demand for rural, HUA, or infrastructure visas eventually exceeds the allocated supply, those categories could also develop backlogs. Current data does not suggest this is imminent, but it remains a possibility as filing volumes continue to accelerate ahead of the September 30, 2026 grandfathering deadline.