EB-5 Visa Success Rate: 2026 Data and Approval Trends

In FY2026 Q3 (April to June 2026), the latest quarter of published USCIS data, 687 of 904 completed I-526E petitions were approved, a 76% approval share of completions. Denials rose from 19% of completions in Q1 to 24% in Q3. In FY2025, the I-526E approval share was 94.2% (3,171 of 3,366 completions). The I-829 approval share (removal of conditions) was 93.6% in FY2026 Q1 (941 of 1,005 completions). Approval shares ran very high while USCIS completed relatively few cases; FY2026 is the first year with a material denial share.

Key Facts

• I-526E approval share of completions (FY2026 Q3): 76% (687 approved of 904 completed)
• FY2025 approval share, new-law petitions (I-526E plus standalone I-526): 93.1% (3,201 of 3,439); I-526E-only 94.2%
• I-829 approval share (FY2026 Q1): 93.6% (941 approved of 1,005 completed)
• Denials were about 24% of I-526E completions in FY2026 Q3, up from about 19% in Q1
• Source: USCIS Quarterly Statistics (all-forms workbooks), through FY2026 Q3. Blue trust tier.

What the data actually shows#

This article examines EB-5 approval rates using official USCIS statistics, identifies the factors that affect outcomes, and provides context for interpreting the data. All figures are drawn from USCIS published reports and quarterly data releases.

Individual outcomes depend on case specific factors. Consult a qualified immigration attorney for guidance on your particular circumstances.

I-526/I-526E approval rates by fiscal year#

The I-526 petition (and its successor, the I-526E, introduced under the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022) is the initial petition that establishes eligibility for the EB-5 program. Approval of this petition is the first major milestone.

USCIS publishes quarterly data on I-526/I-526E receipts, approvals, denials, and pending caseloads. The following table summarizes the new-law series (I-526E plus standalone I-526, filed under the RIA framework), taken from each fiscal year's Q4 year-to-date columns. Pre-RIA legacy I-526 petitions are a separate series and are excluded here.

Source: USCIS Quarterly Statistics, all-forms workbooks, FY2023 through FY2026 Q3. Blue trust tier. Percentages are approvals divided by completions (approvals plus denials); pending and withdrawn cases are excluded. FY2026 denial and completion counts are rounded, derived from the published approval count and approval share. The FY2025 I-526E-only figures are 3,171 approved of 3,366 completions (94.2%); FY2026 I-526E-only figures through Q3 are 2,258 approved and 592 denied.

Several observations emerge from this data:

1. Early approval shares were very high because completion volumes were small. In FY2023, USCIS completed only 63 new-law petitions, all approvals. Even FY2024's 96.5% rests on 1,119 completions. High percentages on small bases say more about which cases USCIS reached first than about the odds facing any individual filing.

2. FY2026 is the first year with a material denial share. Denials were about 19% of I-526E completions in Q1 (176 of 940) and 24% in Q3 (217 of 904). Through Q3, USCIS denied 592 I-526E petitions and approved 2,258. USCIS does not publish denial reasons at a statistical level, so whether this level persists will only become clear in later quarterly releases.

3. Legacy pre-RIA I-526 petitions run materially lower approval shares. The legacy series is separate: 73.0% of completions in FY2024 and 65.5% in FY2025. In FY2026 Q1, USCIS approved 29 and denied 41 legacy I-526 petitions, with 1,071 still pending and a 93.2-month median processing time for completed cases. Blending the legacy and new-law series produces misleading averages; this article keeps them apart.

I-829 approval rates#

The I-829 petition is filed to remove conditions on permanent residency, typically two years after receiving the conditional green card. Approval of the I-829 confirms that the investor met the job creation and investment requirements and converts conditional residence to permanent residence.

In FY2026 Q1, USCIS received 1,013 I-829 petitions, approved 941, and denied 64, a 93.6% approval share of the 1,005 completions, with 6,824 I-829 petitions pending at the end of that quarter. For I-829 cases completed in FY2026 Q3, the median processing time was 12.8 months.

Source: USCIS Quarterly Statistics, all-forms workbooks, FY2026 Q1 (I-829 counts) and FY2026 Q3 (median processing time). Blue trust tier.

The I-829 approval share runs high, roughly 94% of completions in FY2026 Q1. Once investors receive their conditional green card, the large majority successfully demonstrate compliance with program requirements and obtain permanent residence.

The I-829 denials that do occur generally stem from project failures (insufficient job creation), investment fund issues, or documentation deficiencies. Investors who selected well structured projects and maintained proper documentation face lower I-829 risk, though USCIS does not publish outcome data broken down by project type.

Factors affecting EB-5 success rates#

Source of funds documentation#

The single most important factor in I-526E outcomes is source of funds documentation. USCIS requires detailed evidence demonstrating the lawful origin of the investment capital, tracing the path from its source through to the new commercial enterprise. Source: USCIS Policy Manual, Volume 6, Part G, Chapter 4. Blue trust tier.

Source of funds deficiencies account for the largest share of Requests for Evidence (RFEs) and denials. The documentation requirements are extensive and include:

1. Tax returns (typically 5 to 7 years of personal and business returns)
2. Bank statements showing the accumulation and transfer of funds
3. Business financial statements and valuation records
4. Property records for real estate transactions
5. Gift documentation (if applicable)
6. Inheritance documentation (if applicable)
7. Loan documentation (if applicable, showing lawful source of repayment)

Investors who work with experienced EB-5 counsel to prepare thorough source of funds documentation before filing improve their probability of approval. For more on this topic, see our source of funds guide.

Project selection#

The quality and structure of the EB-5 project directly affects both I-526E and I-829 outcomes. Projects that fail to create the required 10 full time jobs, that misrepresent their economic impact, or that are not structured in compliance with USCIS requirements can lead to petition denial or I-829 complications.

Key project-related factors include:

Job creation methodology. Regional center projects rely on economic models (typically RIMS II or IMPLAN) to demonstrate indirect and induced job creation. USCIS has become increasingly rigorous in evaluating these models. Projects with conservative, well documented economic analyses perform better than those that rely on aggressive multiplier assumptions.

Project capitalization and progress. USCIS examines whether the project is financially viable and making progress. Projects that stall, run out of non EB-5 capital, or change their business plans face greater scrutiny.

Regional center compliance history. Under the RIA, the Integrity Fund and enhanced oversight measures mean that regional centers with compliance issues can affect the petitions of their investors. Investors should evaluate a regional center's track record, including any USCIS termination actions or SEC enforcement history.

Legal representation#

The quality of legal representation has a measurable impact on outcomes. Attorneys who specialize in EB-5, who have filed hundreds of petitions, and who understand USCIS adjudication patterns are better positioned to prepare petitions that anticipate and address potential issues.

This does not mean that a good attorney can guarantee approval. No attorney can, and USCIS publishes no outcome data by preparer. But practitioner experience consistently suggests that petitions prepared by experienced EB-5 counsel fare better than those prepared by general immigration attorneys or by investors themselves.

Requests for Evidence (RFE) and their impact#

An RFE is issued when USCIS determines that the petition as filed does not contain sufficient evidence to make a decision. Receiving an RFE is not a denial, but it is a signal that USCIS has identified deficiencies in the filing.

USCIS does not publish RFE rates for I-526/I-526E petitions. Practitioner reporting indicates that RFEs are common, with source of funds documentation the most frequent topic, but no official statistic exists. Source: AILA practice advisories and practitioner reporting. Orange trust tier.

The impact of an RFE on final outcomes depends on the nature of the deficiency and the quality of the response:

Petitions that receive an RFE and respond successfully generally achieve approval rates similar to petitions that were approved without an RFE. The RFE process, while it adds months to the timeline, allows investors to supplement their evidence.

Petitions that receive an RFE and fail to respond adequately are denied. The most common RFE topics are source of funds, business plan deficiencies, and economic methodology questions.

For strategies on handling RFEs, see our RFE guide.

How the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act changed outcomes#

The RIA, enacted on March 15, 2022, introduced several changes that have affected approval patterns. Source: Public Law 117-103, Division BB. Blue trust tier.

Integrity Fund and enhanced compliance. The RIA established the EB-5 Integrity Fund, funded by an annual fee paid by each designated regional center and a fee paid with each regional center investor petition. This fund supports USCIS oversight activities, including site visits, audits, and fund administrator monitoring. Enhanced oversight has led to closer scrutiny of projects but has also weeded out poorly structured offerings.

New filing form (I-526E). The transition from I-526 to I-526E required USCIS to develop new adjudication procedures. During the transition period (FY2022 and early FY2023), USCIS completed very few new-law petitions, which is why the FY2023 approval share rests on only 63 completions.

Set-aside categories. The creation of rural, HUA, and infrastructure set asides has shifted filing patterns. Rural projects have attracted a large share of new filings due to visa availability advantages and the statutory priority processing that rural petitions receive. USCIS does not publish approval rates by set-aside category. What can be measured is adjudication progress: AIIA FOIA data (USCIS records obtained via FOIA, through July 31, 2025) shows 44.0% of rural I-526E filings approved (2,819 of 6,406), while only about 8.5% of HUA filings had been adjudicated at all (558 of 6,582).

Denial and debarment provisions. The RIA introduced provisions for debarment of regional centers, project sponsors, and principals who engage in fraud. This puts pressure on poorly run operations to leave the market, although it has not prevented the rise in I-526E denials seen in FY2026.

Rural vs. high unemployment area (HUA) adjudication differences#

USCIS does not publish approval rates broken down by TEA category, and the USCIS processing-times tool has no rural, HUA, or unreserved split. The best available category-level evidence is AIIA FOIA data (USCIS records obtained via FOIA, through July 31, 2025). Green trust tier. That data measures adjudication progress, not the approval odds of a well prepared petition.

Rural projects receive statutory priority processing under the RIA, and USCIS formalized a dedicated rural queue in its February 25, 2026 inventory-management model. The AIIA FOIA data shows the effect: 2,819 of 6,406 rural I-526E filings had been approved (44.0%) and 62 denied, meaning roughly 45% of rural filings had been adjudicated by July 31, 2025.

HUA projects account for a comparable volume of filings (6,582 through July 31, 2025) but sit far behind in the queue: 545 approvals and 13 denials means only about 8.5% of HUA filings had been adjudicated, with roughly 91.5% still pending. The near-universal approval of the HUA cases decided so far says little about the thousands still waiting.

Infrastructure projects show zero I-526E receipts in the USCIS set-aside receipts data through Q3 FY2025, and USCIS and DOS report zero infrastructure-category visa issuances in FY2024, a figure some industry participants dispute. There is no outcome data to analyze.

Tips for maximizing approval probability#

Based on the data and the factors identified above, several strategies are associated with higher success rates:

1. Invest in source of funds preparation. Allocate sufficient time and resources to documenting the lawful origin of every dollar of investment capital. Begin this process months before filing.

2. Select projects with conservative economic models. Projects that rely on reasonable job creation multipliers and have already begun construction or operations present lower risk.

3. Verify regional center compliance. Check the USCIS approved regional center list for the center's current status. Review any public enforcement actions or litigation.

4. Engage specialized EB-5 counsel. Work with an attorney who has a substantial track record of I-526E approvals and who can demonstrate familiarity with current USCIS adjudication standards.

5. Respond to RFEs thoroughly and promptly. If you receive an RFE, treat it as an opportunity to strengthen your case. Provide complete, well organized evidence.

6. Maintain complete records. From the moment you begin planning your EB-5 investment, keep copies of every financial document, communication, and transaction record. These records will be needed for both the I-526E and the I-829.

7. Monitor processing trends. Use the EB5Status processing times dashboard to track current adjudication timelines and plan accordingly.

Data sources and methodology#

All approval and denial statistics in this article are derived from USCIS published quarterly statistics. These figures represent completed adjudications (approvals plus denials) and exclude pending, withdrawn, and administratively closed cases. Approval rates are calculated as approvals divided by total completed adjudications.

This methodology provides a conservative measure of success. Investors who withdraw their petitions (often due to project failures or personal circumstances) are excluded from the denominator, which means the true "success rate" for all investors who ever file could be somewhat lower than the approval rate among adjudicated cases.

USCIS updates its quarterly statistics with a lag of approximately one to two quarters. The most recent release covers FY2026 Q3 (April to June 2026).

Key takeaways#

The approval share of completed new-law petitions ran from 100% in FY2023 (on a 63-completion base) through 96.5% in FY2024 and 93.1% in FY2025, then fell to 78.6% for FY2026 through Q3, with I-526E denials reaching 24% of completions in Q3. The I-829 approval share was 93.6% in FY2026 Q1, meaning investors who receive conditional green cards still overwhelmingly obtain permanent residence.

Source of funds documentation is the single most important factor in I-526E outcomes. Project selection, legal representation, and RFE response quality also affect results. The RIA has introduced enhanced oversight that has improved the quality of the EB-5 market while increasing scrutiny of individual petitions.

Prospective investors should interpret approval rate data in context: these figures reflect the outcomes of petitions that were actually adjudicated and may not capture the full range of investor experiences, including those whose projects failed before adjudication.

Consult an immigration attorney for personalized guidance regarding your EB-5 petition and its likelihood of success. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice.

Related Research#

• Visa bulletin predictions (June 2026): how visa availability affects your EB-5 timeline
• EB-5 denial rates and common reasons: the companion analysis to success rates
• I-526E processing timeline: current USCIS processing data by visa category
• Current EB-5 processing times dashboard: live data for all form types
• EB-5 statistics dashboard: quarterly filing and adjudication data

Sources and Methodology#

All approval and denial statistics are derived from USCIS Quarterly Statistics reports, verified against multiple publication cycles. For a full explanation of how EB5Status calculates approval rates and applies trust tier classifications, see our methodology page.

• USCIS Quarterly Statistics (primary data source)
• EB5Status Approval Rates by Year (interactive historical charts)
• EB5Status Methodology
• EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022 (Public Law 117-103)

Data sources: USCIS Quarterly Statistics (Forms I-526, I-526E, I-829) through FY2026 Q3; AIIA FOIA data (USCIS records obtained via FOIA, through July 31, 2025); USCIS Policy Manual; Public Law 117-103 (EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022). Last verified November 7, 2026.