EB-5 Success Rate: 2026 Approval Data & Trends | EB5Status

The EB-5 program's success rate is one of the most frequently searched topics among prospective investors, and one of the most frequently misrepresented. Marketing materials from regional centers often cite approval rates exceeding 90%, while critics point to high-profile project failures and fraud cases. The truth, as reflected in USCIS published data, is more nuanced and more useful than either narrative.

This article examines EB-5 approval rates using official USCIS statistics, identifies the factors that most significantly affect outcomes, and provides context for interpreting the data. All figures are drawn from USCIS published reports and quarterly data releases.

Individual outcomes depend on case-specific factors. Consult a qualified immigration attorney for guidance on your particular circumstances.

The I-526 petition (and its successor, the I-526E, introduced under the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022) is the initial petition that establishes eligibility for the EB-5 program. Approval of this petition is the first major milestone.

USCIS publishes quarterly data on I-526/I-526E receipts, approvals, denials, and pending caseloads. The following table summarizes approval and denial rates for recent fiscal years.

Source: USCIS Quarterly Statistics, Form I-526/I-526E, published through Q2 FY2025. Blue trust tier. Note: FY2022 figures reflect the transition period during the regional center program lapse and RIA enactment. Percentages calculated from approved/(approved+denied), excluding pending and withdrawn cases.

Several observations emerge from this data:

1. Approval rates have improved significantly since FY2022. The FY2022 low point (67.5%) reflected the disruption of the regional center program lapse and the transition to the RIA framework. Since then, approval rates have climbed steadily, reaching approximately 90% in early FY2025.

2. The long-term average approval rate is approximately 80% to 85%. This figure encompasses both strong and weak filing periods, and it includes both well-prepared and poorly documented petitions.

3. Denial rates are meaningful, not trivial. Even in favorable years, 10% to 15% of petitions are denied. In difficult years, the rate has exceeded 30%. This underscores that the EB-5 is not a rubber-stamp process.

The I-829 petition is filed to remove conditions on permanent residency, typically two years after receiving the conditional green card. Approval of the I-829 confirms that the investor met the job creation and investment requirements and converts conditional residence to permanent residence.

Source: USCIS Quarterly Statistics, Form I-829, published through FY2024. Blue trust tier.

The I-829 approval rate is consistently high, typically above 96%. This indicates that once investors receive their conditional green card, the vast majority successfully demonstrate compliance with program requirements and obtain permanent residence.

The relatively small number of I-829 denials each year generally stems from project failures (insufficient job creation), investment fund issues, or documentation deficiencies. Investors who selected well-structured projects and maintained proper documentation have historically achieved I-829 approval rates near or above 98%.

Source of Funds Documentation#

The single most significant factor in I-526E outcomes is source of funds documentation. USCIS requires detailed evidence demonstrating the lawful origin of the investment capital, tracing the path from its source through to the new commercial enterprise. Source: USCIS Policy Manual, Volume 6, Part G, Chapter 4. Blue trust tier.

Source of funds deficiencies account for the largest share of Requests for Evidence (RFEs) and denials. The documentation requirements are extensive and include:

1. Tax returns (typically 5 to 7 years of personal and business returns)
2. Bank statements showing the accumulation and transfer of funds
3. Business financial statements and valuation records
4. Property records for real estate transactions
5. Gift documentation (if applicable)
6. Inheritance documentation (if applicable)
7. Loan documentation (if applicable, showing lawful source of repayment)

Investors who work with experienced EB-5 counsel to prepare comprehensive source of funds documentation before filing significantly improve their probability of approval. For more on this topic, see our source of funds guide.

Project Selection#

The quality and structure of the EB-5 project directly affects both I-526E and I-829 outcomes. Projects that fail to create the required 10 full-time jobs, that misrepresent their economic impact, or that are not structured in compliance with USCIS requirements can lead to petition denial or I-829 complications.

Key project-related factors include:

Job creation methodology. Regional center projects rely on economic models (typically RIMS II or IMPLAN) to demonstrate indirect and induced job creation. USCIS has become increasingly rigorous in evaluating these models. Projects with conservative, well-documented economic analyses perform better than those that rely on aggressive multiplier assumptions.

Project capitalization and progress. USCIS examines whether the project is financially viable and making progress. Projects that stall, run out of non-EB-5 capital, or change their business plans face greater scrutiny.

Regional center compliance history. Under the RIA, the Integrity Fund and enhanced oversight measures mean that regional centers with compliance issues can affect the petitions of their investors. Investors should evaluate a regional center's track record, including any USCIS termination actions or SEC enforcement history.

Legal Representation#

The quality of legal representation has a measurable impact on outcomes. Attorneys who specialize in EB-5, who have filed hundreds of petitions, and who understand USCIS adjudication patterns are better positioned to prepare petitions that anticipate and address potential issues.

This does not mean that a good attorney can guarantee approval. No attorney can. But the data consistently shows that petitions prepared by experienced EB-5 counsel have higher approval rates than those prepared by general immigration attorneys or by investors themselves.

Requests for Evidence (RFE) and Their Impact#

An RFE is issued when USCIS determines that the petition as filed does not contain sufficient evidence to make a decision. Receiving an RFE is not a denial, but it is a signal that USCIS has identified deficiencies in the filing.

RFE rates for I-526/I-526E petitions have fluctuated over time. During some periods, RFE rates have exceeded 50%, meaning more than half of all filed petitions received at least one RFE before adjudication. Source: USCIS Quarterly Statistics and USCIS Ombudsman reports. Blue trust tier.

The impact of an RFE on final outcomes depends on the nature of the deficiency and the quality of the response:

Petitions that receive an RFE and respond successfully generally achieve approval rates similar to petitions that were approved without an RFE. The RFE process, while it adds months to the timeline, allows investors to supplement their evidence.

Petitions that receive an RFE and fail to respond adequately are denied. The most common RFE topics are source of funds, business plan deficiencies, and economic methodology questions.

For strategies on handling RFEs, see our RFE guide.

The RIA, enacted on March 15, 2022, introduced several changes that have affected approval patterns. Source: Public Law 117-103, Division BB. Blue trust tier.

Integrity Fund and enhanced compliance. The RIA established the EB-5 Integrity Fund, funded by fees from investors, regional centers, and project developers. This fund supports USCIS oversight activities, including site visits, audits, and fund administrator monitoring. Enhanced oversight has led to closer scrutiny of projects but has also weeded out poorly structured offerings.

New filing form (I-526E). The transition from I-526 to I-526E required USCIS to develop new adjudication procedures. During the transition period (FY2022 and early FY2023), processing was disrupted, contributing to the lower approval rates observed during that period.

Set-aside categories. The creation of rural, HUA, and infrastructure set-asides has shifted filing patterns. Rural projects have attracted a disproportionate share of new filings due to visa availability advantages and prioritized processing. Early data suggests that rural set-aside petitions have approval rates comparable to or slightly higher than the overall average, though the sample size is still limited.

Denial and debarment provisions. The RIA introduced provisions for debarment of regional centers, project sponsors, and principals who engage in fraud. This has had a chilling effect on poorly run operations, which likely contributes to improved overall approval rates as the weakest projects exit the market.

While USCIS does not publish granular approval rates broken down by TEA category, available data and practitioner reports suggest the following patterns. Source: EB5Status analysis of USCIS published data and practitioner surveys; AILA EB-5 Committee reports. Gray trust tier (derived).

Rural projects have benefited from prioritized processing under the RIA. USCIS has been adjudicating rural I-526E petitions faster than non-rural petitions, though the agency has not committed to a specific processing timeline for rural cases. Faster adjudication generally correlates with fewer withdrawn and abandoned petitions, which can improve the observed approval rate.

HUA projects continue to represent the majority of EB-5 filings by volume. Their approval rates are generally in line with the overall average.

Infrastructure projects account for a very small share of total filings (reflecting the 2% visa allocation). The limited data makes it difficult to draw statistical conclusions about their approval rates.

Based on the data and the factors identified above, several strategies are associated with higher success rates:

1. Invest in source of funds preparation. Allocate sufficient time and resources to documenting the lawful origin of every dollar of investment capital. Begin this process months before filing.

2. Select projects with conservative economic models. Projects that rely on reasonable job creation multipliers and have already begun construction or operations present lower risk.

3. Verify regional center compliance. Check the USCIS approved regional center list for the center's current status. Review any public enforcement actions or litigation.

4. Engage specialized EB-5 counsel. Work with an attorney who has a substantial track record of I-526E approvals and who can demonstrate familiarity with current USCIS adjudication standards.

5. Respond to RFEs thoroughly and promptly. If you receive an RFE, treat it as an opportunity to strengthen your case. Provide comprehensive, well-organized evidence.

6. Maintain complete records. From the moment you begin planning your EB-5 investment, keep copies of every financial document, communication, and transaction record. These records will be needed for both the I-526E and the I-829.

7. Monitor processing trends. Use the EB5Status processing times dashboard to track current adjudication timelines and plan accordingly.

All approval and denial statistics in this article are derived from USCIS published quarterly statistics. These figures represent completed adjudications (approvals plus denials) and exclude pending, withdrawn, and administratively closed cases. Approval rates are calculated as approvals divided by total completed adjudications.

This methodology provides a conservative measure of success. Investors who withdraw their petitions (often due to project failures or personal circumstances) are excluded from the denominator, which means the true "success rate" for all investors who ever file could be somewhat lower than the approval rate among adjudicated cases.

USCIS updates its quarterly statistics with a lag of approximately one to two quarters. The most recent data available as of March 2026 covers through Q2 FY2025.

The EB-5 approval rate for I-526E petitions has improved from a low of approximately 67.5% in FY2022 to approximately 90% in early FY2025, reflecting the stabilization of the program after the RIA transition. The I-829 approval rate remains consistently above 96%, indicating that investors who receive conditional green cards overwhelmingly succeed in obtaining permanent residence.

Source of funds documentation is the single most important factor in I-526E outcomes. Project selection, legal representation, and RFE response quality also significantly affect results. The RIA has introduced enhanced oversight that has improved the overall quality of the EB-5 market while also increasing scrutiny of individual petitions.

Prospective investors should interpret approval rate data in context: these figures reflect the outcomes of petitions that were actually adjudicated and may not capture the full range of investor experiences, including those whose projects failed before adjudication.

Consult an immigration attorney for personalized guidance regarding your EB-5 petition and its likelihood of success. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice.

Data sources: USCIS Quarterly Statistics (Forms I-526, I-526E, I-829); USCIS Policy Manual; Public Law 117-103 (EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022). Last verified March 19, 2026.