EB-5 Visa Bulletin Forecast: August to December 2026 Movement

A useful EB-5 visa bulletin forecast does not name a future date. It explains the machinery that produces each month's Final Action Dates: a fixed annual supply of visa numbers, a per-country limit that pushes high-demand countries into retrogression, and a fiscal-year reset every October 1 that restores fresh numbers. Understand those three forces and the bulletin stops looking random.

As of June 25, 2026.

This article walks through how movement actually works from August to December 2026, using the July 2026 Visa Bulletin as the starting point. It does not predict where any Final Action Date will land. Anyone who quotes you a specific future EB-5 date is guessing, because the State Department sets those dates from visa-number availability and documented demand that are not published in advance. What you can plan around is the mechanism, and the mechanism is knowable.

How does the EB-5 visa bulletin actually move?#

The Visa Bulletin is the State Department's monthly accounting of which priority dates can move forward. Each EB-5 row carries two charts. The Final Action Dates chart governs when a green card can actually be issued. The Dates for Filing chart governs when applicants can submit the next step, and USCIS decides each month whether adjustment-of-status filers may use it. When people say a category "moved," they usually mean the Final Action Date advanced. For a full walkthrough of how to read those two charts and your priority date, see how to read the EB-5 visa bulletin and priority dates.

Movement is not editorial. It is arithmetic. The State Department allocates a limited pool of numbers each year, watches demand pile up against per-country ceilings, and advances or holds dates to keep issuance inside the legal limits. The bulletin is the visible output of that supply-and-demand calculation.

What sets the annual numbers?#

EB-5 sits in the fifth employment-based preference. Its annual allocation is 7.1 percent of the worldwide employment-based level, and because that worldwide level is "at least 140,000," EB-5 works out to a baseline near 9,940 visas per year. Treat that as a baseline rather than a hard ceiling, since spillover from other categories can push the real number higher in some years.

The EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022 then carved that pool into reserved and unreserved lanes. Three set-aside categories reserve 20 percent for rural projects, 10 percent for high-unemployment projects, and 2 percent for infrastructure projects, which leaves 68 percent unreserved. Those reserved lanes draw from their own number pools, and on the July 2026 bulletin all three are current for every country. The reserved categories stay current precisely because demand has not yet caught up to their separate supply. We cover why that matters for filing strategy in EB-5 reserved set-asides: rural, high-unemployment, and infrastructure stay current.

Why do India and China retrogress when set-asides stay current?#

The other ceiling is the per-country limit. Under 8 U.S.C. 1152(a)(2), natives of any single country may receive no more than 7 percent of the total available preference numbers in a year. When a country's nationals file more EB-5 petitions than that 7 percent slice can cover, the State Department holds that country's Final Action Date back to keep issuance legal. That is retrogression, and it is mechanical, not punitive.

The unreserved lane is where this bites. It is the most demanded category, so high-demand countries hit the per-country wall there first. On the July 2026 bulletin, China's unreserved Final Action Date sits at December 1, 2016, with a Dates for Filing of March 1, 2017. India's unreserved Final Action Date is listed as Unavailable for the remainder of fiscal year 2026, with a Dates for Filing of May 1, 2024. Mexico and the Philippines are current. The same Indian and Chinese applicants, meanwhile, see every set-aside category as current, because the reserved pools have not been oversubscribed. That split is the whole reason set-asides function as a genuine pull factor for backlogged countries. The mechanics behind each country's position are detailed in our India unreserved Unavailable analysis and our China backlog and set-asides breakdown. You can also track each country's standing on the India and China hubs.

What happens at the October 1 FY2027 reset?#

This is the single most important date in any August-to-December outlook, and it is the one the spec calls the FY2027 reset. The federal fiscal year runs October 1 to September 30. Every October 1, the EB-5 category receives a fresh annual allotment of numbers: the unreserved baseline plus the reserved set-aside allocations start over.

That reset changes the picture for any category that went unavailable late in the prior year. When the State Department marks a category "Unavailable," it usually means a country has already consumed its pro-rated share of the current year's numbers, so no more can be issued until the calendar turns over. The July 2026 bulletin says exactly this about India: the pro-rated unreserved limit was reached, so the category is unavailable for the rest of fiscal year 2026.

Here is the mechanical expectation, framed as an expectation rather than a promise. When fiscal year 2027 numbers become available on October 1, 2026, a category that was unavailable only because the prior year's supply ran out generally reopens with a Final Action Date again. The State Department still chooses what that date is, based on the demand it sees and the numbers it has to work with. So the reasonable thing to watch for is the unreserved category for India becoming available again at or shortly after the reset. The reasonable thing to avoid is assuming any particular date. We will not print one, because no primary source supports one.

What are the year-end dynamics for the unreserved category?#

Late in a fiscal year, the State Department is managing a shrinking pool. As August and September arrive, it has a running tally of how many numbers each country has used. To avoid issuing more visas than the law allows, it can slow a Final Action Date, hold it, or mark a category unavailable for the remaining weeks. That is why "Unavailable" tends to appear at year-end for the most oversubscribed countries rather than in the middle of a fiscal year.

For high-demand countries, the unreserved category therefore has a predictable rhythm. Numbers are most plentiful early in the fiscal year, when the fresh allotment is intact, and tightest at the end, when the annual ceiling and the per-country ceiling are both in view. India reaching its pro-rated limit before the end of fiscal year 2026 is a textbook version of that year-end squeeze. China, sitting on a much older Final Action Date, moves in smaller increments and is less likely to swing to unavailable, because its date is already deep enough that demand is metered by the date itself.

None of this tells you the size of any backlog in years, and we will not estimate one. The honest statement is narrower: the unreserved category for backlogged countries is supply-constrained, the constraint is tightest at fiscal year-end, and it loosens at the October reset.

What should you watch from August to December 2026?#

Treat the following as the watch list, and treat every forward-looking item as an expectation rather than a guarantee.

• Whether the set-asides stay current. They have been current for every country, including India and China. As long as the reserved pools stay undersubscribed, that should hold, which keeps rural, high-unemployment, and infrastructure projects available to backlogged nationals.
• The October 1 reset. Watch the October 2026 bulletin (published in mid-September) for whether the India unreserved category reopens with a Final Action Date and where the State Department sets it.
• Final Action Dates versus Dates for Filing. The gap between the two charts signals how the State Department reads demand. Watch whether USCIS continues to let adjustment-of-status applicants use the more generous Dates for Filing chart month to month.
• Spillover. EB-5's baseline can be exceeded when unused numbers flow from other employment-based categories. A heavier spillover year can move dates faster than the baseline alone would suggest.

If you are timing a filing around any of this, anchor the decision to your own priority date and processing posture, not to a predicted bulletin. Check current adjudication windows on the processing times tracker, and run your document readiness against the filing checklist tool. For the legal terms used above, the glossary defines retrogression, Final Action Dates, Dates for Filing, and the set-aside categories. And because timing questions turn on the specific facts of your case, confirm them with a qualified EB-5 immigration attorney before you act.

Why this forecast names no future dates#

It is worth stating the discipline directly. A specific future Final Action Date is not forecastable from public information, because the State Department does not publish the demand data or the number-availability math in advance. Projections that circulate online are extrapolations, not facts, and they age badly the moment a bulletin surprises the market.

What is durable is the structure: a baseline near 9,940 unreserved-and-reserved numbers, a 7 percent per-country ceiling, set-aside lanes that have stayed current, and an October 1 reset that restores supply. Plan against the structure. When the next bulletin lands, read it against these mechanics, and you will understand the movement without needing anyone to have guessed it for you.

Frequently asked questions#

Can anyone predict the next EB-5 Final Action Dates? No. The State Department sets each month's dates from visa-number availability and documented demand, neither of which is published ahead of time. What you can track is the mechanism: a fixed annual supply, a per-country limit, and the October 1 reset. Treat any forward-looking date as an expectation, not a guarantee.

What is the October 1, 2026 FY2027 reset? On October 1, the EB-5 category receives a fresh annual allotment of numbers. Categories that went unavailable late in the prior year because a country used up its pro-rated share generally reopen once the new year's numbers are available, with a Final Action Date the State Department sets based on demand.

Why are the set-asides current when India unreserved is not? The reserved set-asides draw from separate, undersubscribed pools, so they stay current for every country. The unreserved category is the most demanded and is capped per country, so high-demand countries retrogress there first.

Does India unreserved going unavailable affect the set-asides? No. On the July 2026 bulletin, all three set-aside categories are current for every country, including India. The categories use different number pools, so an unavailable unreserved lane does not touch the reserved lanes.

Sources#

• U.S. Department of State, Visa Bulletin for July 2026
• 8 U.S.C. 1153(b)(5) (EB-5 allocation, set-aside reserves, and per-country pro-rating)
• 8 U.S.C. 1152(a)(2) (7 percent per-country limit)
• USCIS, About the EB-5 Visa Classification
• USCIS, Policy Manual Volume 6, Part G (set-aside and TEA definitions)